Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm OTIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2005
 
A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0130Z SUPPORTED AT LEAST 30 KT...WITH A COUPLE OF
UNCERTAIN 35 KT VECTORS IN CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. 
SINCE THAT TIME THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER
OR VERY NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE 6Z CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T2.5...OR 35 KT.  BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE
DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.  

THE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL
MICROWAVE PASSES THAT SUGGEST A CENTER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF MY
ESTIMATED POSTION...BUT THESE MAY BE REFLECTING SWIRLS GENERATED IN
THE CONVECTION THAT THEN ROTATE COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND A BROADER
CIRCULATION.  AT NIGHT I WOULD PREFER TO MAINTAIN MORE CONTINUITY
WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK THAN JUMP ON ONE OF THESE SWIRLS.  EVEN
SO...THE TRACK DOES APPEAR TO HAVE TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/5.  OTIS REMAINS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY A TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THAT OTIS WILL TURN NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
FORWARD SPEED OF OTIS AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THERE HASN'T BEEN MUCH CONSISTENCY
FROM RUN TO RUN.  THE NOGAPS...WHICH HAD BEEN ONE OF THE SLOWER
MODELS PREVIOUSLY...IS NOW ONE OF THE FASTEST...WHILE THE
GFDL...WHICH HAD BEEN THE FASTEST...IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
PACK.  SUCH ERRATIC BEHAVIOR IS A GOOD REASON TO STAY NEAR THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  ONLY THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL TURNS OTIS
AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA.  

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT OTIS...ALTHOUGH THIS SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A SOMEWHAT FASTER PACE
AFTER THAT.  BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING SOUTHERLY
SHEAR AND/OR COOLER SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WEAKENING
TREND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE.  

 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 17.5N 107.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 18.0N 108.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 18.9N 110.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 19.7N 111.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     01/0600Z 20.5N 111.7W    65 KT
 72HR VT     02/0600Z 22.1N 112.6W    65 KT
 96HR VT     03/0600Z 24.5N 113.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     04/0600Z 27.5N 114.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 29-Sep-2005 08:40:23 UTC