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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2005
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED EVEN
THOUGH CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SOMEWHAT.
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS IMPROVED AND NEARBY SHIP REPORTS INDICATE
THE SURFACE WIND FIELD HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. AT 1200Z... SHIP
MCDW9 LOCATED 100 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND OF 24 KT AND SHIP MKYJ8 LOCATED 120 NMI WEST OF
THE CENTER REPORTED A NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 KT AND A PRESSURE OF
1006.8 MB. THESE OBSERVATIONS... ALONG WITH A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 1005 MB.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/06.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
KEEP TD-15E MOVING IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY EVEN DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
120 HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THE TIMING AND
DEGREE OF EROSION OF THE RIDGE. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS ARE THE
FASTEST AND STRONGEST WITH ERODING THE RIDGE...AND THOSE MODELS
RECURVE THE CYCLONE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 96-120 HOURS. IN
CONTRAST... THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...AND THE NOGAPS MODELS ARE
SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH EROSION OF THE RIDGE. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT DATA OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE RATHER WEAK
LOOKING APPEARANCE OF THE TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AND ALSO
LEANS CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... WHICH TURNS THE
CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT
NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZED TD-15E VERY WELL... SO THERE
MAY BE SOME SIGNIFICANT TRACK CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
 
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NEAR 20 KT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER 36 HOURS. IN THE 48-84 HOUR TIME
FRAME... THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS... WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR SINCE THE
CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE OVER 28-29C SSTS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5... THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER... WHICH MAY
BRING ABOUT SOME SLOW WEAKENING. HOWEVER... IF THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST... IT WOULD REMAIN OVER 27-29C SSTS
... AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WOULD BE TOO LOW IN THE
LATER PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT 48H AND 72H.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 17.0N 105.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 17.3N 106.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 17.9N 108.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 18.7N 109.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 19.7N 111.1W    55 KT
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 21.0N 112.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     02/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     03/1200Z 24.5N 114.5W    55 KT
 
$$
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 28-Sep-2005 14:40:20 UTC