Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2005
 
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ON THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO WERE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z.  THERE IS PLENTY OF
ROTATION IN THE MID LEVELS...AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BROAD 
AREA OF SURFACE CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH THE TWO DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
EXACTLY CO-LOCATED.  NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE
SURFACE CENTER IS ON OR NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO CONSIDER THE
SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  

THE INITIAL MOTION...USUALLY UNCERTAIN FOR FORMATIVE SYSTEMS...IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 270/6.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...BUT
THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW IS LESS WELL DEFINED.  THIS RIDGE DOES NOT
EXTEND WESTWARD VERY FAR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND GLOBAL
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SERIES OF TROUGHS TO APPROACH THE BAJA
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST AN
OVERALL MOTION SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF A CLIMATOLOGICAL
285/11-TYPE TRACK.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER DIVERGENT...WITH THE
GFS TAKING A RELATIVELY STRONG SYSTEM MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP THE
CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST WITH A MUCH SLOWER INITIAL
MOTION.  GIVEN THE PRESENT SHEARED APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION...I
THINK THE GFS SOLUTION IS TOO RAPID TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ATTEMPTS TO BLEND THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE 18Z GFDL RUN...THE LAST RUN NOT TO DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY EASE UP OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO A SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST ROUGHLY
IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS.

 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0900Z 17.0N 105.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 17.1N 106.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 17.3N 107.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 18.0N 108.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 20.5N 111.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     02/0600Z 21.5N 112.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     03/0600Z 22.0N 113.5W    50 KT
 
 
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