ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2005 A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 02Z HAD ONE LONELY RAIN-FLAGGED 30 KT VECTOR...AND SINCE THAT TIME DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISAPPEARED. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT. WITH NORMA HAVING CROSSED THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. NORMA NO LONGER HAS THE CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SO THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE REMNANT LOW CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/9. WHILE THE CURRENT STEERING RESULTS FROM THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TEXAS...NORMA WILL PROBABLY TURN WESTWARD LATER TODAY AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH. IN ADDITION...NOW THAT THE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY THE NORTHEASTERLIES WILL TAKE OVER AND SHOULD FORCE THE REMNANT LOW SOUTHWESTWARD. THE GFS COMPLETELY DISSIPATES THE CIRCULATION IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF NORMA PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 21.9N 116.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 27/1800Z 22.4N 117.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 28/0600Z 22.4N 118.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 28/1800Z 21.8N 119.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 29/0600Z 21.3N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 30/0600Z 20.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 27-Sep-2005 08:40:24 UTC