Tropical Storm NORMA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2005

SOME CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE RE-DEVELOPED NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE BANDING AND
OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING.  USING THE MEAN
OF DVORAK T- AND C.I.- NUMBERS...WHICH IS ROUTINELY DONE AT THE NHC
FOR WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...
GIVES A CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 30 KT.  NORMA IS DOWNGRADED
TO A DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME...BUT SINCE IT IS MOVING OVER
MARGINALLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES...SOME MORE FLAREUPS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEGENERATES INTO A
REMNANT LOW.  PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD ALSO DISCOURAGE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.  NORMA COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW.

INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...315/8.  TRACK GUIDANCE AND
SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST HAVE NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES.  NORMA SHOULD CONTINUE
ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWING THE FLOW
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE...AND THEN
THE WEAKENING REMNANT CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TURN WESTWARD AS ITS
STEERING BECOMES MOST INFLUENCED BY FLOW IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 20.6N 115.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 21.2N 115.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 21.6N 116.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 21.5N 117.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 21.3N 118.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 20.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/1800Z 20.0N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     01/1800Z 20.0N 124.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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