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Hurricane MAX


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2005
 
A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS FROM 0251Z SHOWED SOME VECTORS NEAR 35 KT...SO
THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM ON THIS
ADVISORY.  MAX STILL HAS A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER COOL WATERS...AND BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN A DAY OR SO.  IF NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
RETURN TO THE SYSTEM...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY.

MAX HAS TURNED TO A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST HEADING...AND INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 260/4.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...AS
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MAX IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ILL-DEFINED. 
DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS CALL FOR A SLOW...BUT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTWARD COMPONENT OF...MOTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
BEYOND DAY 3...THERE IS MUCH DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK MODELS.  GIVEN
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...AND THE LACK OF DEFINITIVE STEERING
FEATURES...THE SYSTEM IS HELD STATIONARY AT DAYS 3-5...AS IN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECASTS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 21.7N 121.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 21.6N 122.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 21.4N 123.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 21.1N 124.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 20.7N 124.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Sep-2005 08:40:23 UTC