ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2005 MAX'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND EXPERIENCES SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THE EYE HAS VANISHED AND T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE DECREASING. THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS MAX MOVES OVER COOL WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS PREDICTION THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT IS ABOVE THAT GUIDANCE AT THE LATER FORECAST TIMES. IF SHIPS TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT... HOWEVER...MAX WILL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE. BASED ON SSM/I AND SSM/IS IMAGES FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...MAX HAS TURNED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/7. A CONTINUED WESTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MAX...AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 21.6N 120.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 22.2N 121.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 22.3N 122.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 22.3N 123.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 22.2N 124.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 22.0N 126.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 25/0600Z 21.5N 129.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/0600Z 21.0N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Sep-2005 08:40:23 UTC