Hurricane MAX

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TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2005

MAX'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND
EXPERIENCES SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. 
THE EYE HAS VANISHED AND T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
DECREASING.  THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM AT THIS TIME.  CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS MAX
MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
PREDICTION THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT IS ABOVE THAT GUIDANCE AT THE
LATER FORECAST TIMES.  IF SHIPS TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT...
HOWEVER...MAX WILL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE.

BASED ON SSM/I AND SSM/IS IMAGES FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...MAX HAS
TURNED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
320/7.  A CONTINUED WESTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED...IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
MAX...AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE
NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN.  

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 21.6N 120.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 22.2N 121.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 22.3N 122.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 22.3N 123.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 22.2N 124.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 22.0N 126.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/0600Z 21.0N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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