Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane MAX


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2005

MAX'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND
EXPERIENCES SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. 
THE EYE HAS VANISHED AND T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
DECREASING.  THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM AT THIS TIME.  CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS MAX
MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
PREDICTION THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT IS ABOVE THAT GUIDANCE AT THE
LATER FORECAST TIMES.  IF SHIPS TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT...
HOWEVER...MAX WILL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE.

BASED ON SSM/I AND SSM/IS IMAGES FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...MAX HAS
TURNED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
320/7.  A CONTINUED WESTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED...IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
MAX...AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE
NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN.  

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 21.6N 120.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 22.2N 121.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 22.3N 122.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 22.3N 123.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 22.2N 124.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 22.0N 126.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/0600Z 21.0N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Sep-2005 08:40:23 UTC