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Hurricane MAX


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005
 
MAX HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH BANDING FEATURES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ELONGATION IN THE
CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE WITH SOME STRATACUMULUS BEGINNING TO
BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST OF MAX APPEARS TO BE IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AT THE PRESENT TIME. WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM
BOTH AFWA AND TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT. MAX HAS
NOW MOVED NORTH OF 20 DEGREES LATITUDE WHERE SSTS ARE BELOW 26
DEGREE CELSIUS. THESE COOLER WATERS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN MAX
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS REPRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 320/9. MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT IS BEING STEERED BY THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
TEXAS. IN TWO DAYS...ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO BUILD NORTHWEST OF MAX WHICH WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A
GENERAL WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. MAX IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO
A REMNANT LOW IN FIVE DAYS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
TO THE SOUTHWEST THE CYCLONE MOVES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 20.2N 119.5W    65 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 20.9N 120.4W    60 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 21.6N 121.6W    50 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 21.8N 122.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 21.8N 124.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 21.9N 126.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 21.5N 128.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     25/1800Z 20.5N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Sep-2005 20:55:22 UTC