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Hurricane MAX


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK BANDING-TYPE EYE...AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KT.  MAX IS UPGRADED
TO A HURRICANE ON THIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT
VERY STRONG...IT APPEARS THAT MAX HAS REACHED ITS MAX INTENSITY...
SINCE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO COOL AND THE
SYSTEM'S DEEP CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DECREASING.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS...AND MAINTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH
ONLY FOR A SHORT WHILE.  THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY. 
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW AS IT TRAVERSES
23 DEG C WATERS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION...315/9...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.  MAX IS BEING STEERED BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH CENTERED NEAR TEXAS.  GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING FARTHER
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  CONSEQUENTLY...A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE LEFT IS LIKELY.  BY DAYS 4-5...MAX...OR ITS REMNANT...IS LIKELY
TO MOVE WEST OR SOUTH OF WEST FOLLOWING THE SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 18.4N 117.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 19.4N 118.7W    65 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N 119.8W    60 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 21.8N 122.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 22.0N 125.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 22.0N 128.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     25/0000Z 21.5N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

 
$$
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Sep-2005 02:40:22 UTC