Tropical Storm MAX

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TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOW SHOWING A BANDING EYE FEATURE WITH
FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION EVIDENT ON INFRARED IMAGERY. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS RANGED FROM T4.0...65 KT...FROM TAFB AND T3.0...45
KT...FROM SAB. AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
INCREASED 60 KT...JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. A QUIKSCAT PASS
FROM 1336Z THIS MORNING JUSTIFIES INCREASING BOTH THE 34 KT AND 50
KT WIND RADII. DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE RESPRESENTATION ON
SATELLITE...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS
SMALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS A 60 KT TROPICAL
STORM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT MAY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR
TO REACHING MUCH COOLER WATERS NORTH OF 19N. 

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 315/8. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN THE FORECAST REASONING. A MID-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STEER MAX IN A WEST-
NORTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE STEERING MAX
ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BUT IS A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE SOUTH IN THE LATER
PERIODS.
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 17.5N 117.2W    60 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 18.4N 118.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 19.7N 119.3W    60 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 20.4N 120.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 21.5N 124.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 21.5N 127.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     24/1800Z 21.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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