ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 AN EARLIER AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT MAX HAD ABSORBED THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF LIDIA...NOW EMBEDDED IN A BANDING FEATURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF MAX. SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AND A DEVELOPING BAND OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE FORECAST INTENSITY CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THEN...MAX SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER...24 DEGREES CELSIUS...WATERS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/9. A MID- LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM TEXAS IS STEERING MAX IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A DEEP- LAYER LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WEST...CAUSING MAX TO TURN GRADUALLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFS...AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT TO THE LEFT AFTER 72 HOURS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 15.6N 115.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 16.3N 116.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 17.4N 118.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 18.4N 119.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 19.5N 121.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 22.1N 123.7W 40 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 24.0N 127.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 24/0000Z 25.0N 131.0W 20 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 19-Sep-2005 20:55:21 UTC