ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND -85 DEGREES CELSIUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE. 18Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE 2.5 OR 35 KT. BASED ON THE CLASSIFICATIONS AND AN IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...TWELVE-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM LIDIA. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF LIDIA...INTERACTION AND/OR MERGING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS LIDIA BETWEEN 35 KT AND 45 KT THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/03. THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS DEPENDENT UPON THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL STORM AND THE DISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MOVES LIDIA VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST...SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERGENT..BUT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY TRACK LIDIA TO THE NORTH. FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 12.5N 115.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 12.5N 115.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 12.6N 116.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 12.8N 116.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 13.2N 117.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 13.7N 117.8W 45 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 14.5N 118.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 15.0N 119.0W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 17-Sep-2005 20:55:20 UTC