Tropical Storm LIDIA

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TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND -85 DEGREES CELSIUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CYCLONE.  18Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE
2.5 OR 35 KT. BASED ON THE CLASSIFICATIONS AND AN IMPROVED
SATELLITE SIGNATURE...TWELVE-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
LIDIA. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF LIDIA...INTERACTION AND/OR MERGING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST MAINTAINS LIDIA BETWEEN 35 KT AND 45 KT THROUGH FIVE DAYS. 
  
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/03. THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IS DEPENDENT UPON THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL STORM AND
THE DISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MOVES LIDIA VERY
SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST...SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERGENT..BUT THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY TRACK LIDIA TO THE NORTH.  

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 12.5N 115.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 12.5N 115.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 12.6N 116.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 12.8N 116.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 13.2N 117.3W    45 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 13.7N 117.8W    45 KT
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 14.5N 118.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     22/1800Z 15.0N 119.0W    40 KT
 
 
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