ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005 THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...AND AN EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN THE SHORT TERM...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE CURRENT TREND IN CENTRAL CONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...INCREASING STABILITY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN KENNETH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE STEERING WINDS...BETWEEN A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A TROUGH SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF KENNETH...HAVE BEEN DRIVING THE HURRICANE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PREDICTED BY THE GFS TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH IN 48 HOURS OR SO. THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO TURN KENNETH TO THE RIGHT...AND INCREASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST RESEMBLES THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ONLY SHIFTED ABOUT A HALF DEGREE TO THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SYSTEM'S RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD EXCURSION. NOTE...IF KENNETH MOVES WEST OF 140W BY 00Z...THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 15.8N 139.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 15.4N 140.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 15.3N 141.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 15.4N 142.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 143.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 28/1800Z 17.5N 145.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 29/1800Z 19.0N 148.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 30/1800Z 20.0N 151.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 25-Sep-2005 20:55:20 UTC