ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005 KENNETH REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE AND AN EYE HAS RECENTLY BECOME EVIDENT ON ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT...65 KT...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT. ALTHOUGH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS CAUSE WEAKENING LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. KENNETH IS DRIFTING A LITTLE SOUTH OF WESTWARD...260/2...AS IT HAS BEEN LOCATED IN A REGION OF LIGHT STEERING WINDS BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO ITS NORTHEAST AND A MID-LEVEL HIGH NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KENNETH. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT...AND ALSO TO INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD AND SIMILAR TO IT IN THE LATTER PERIODS. THIS IS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...GIVEN THE HISTORY OF SLOW MOTION FOR THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 16.3N 139.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 16.0N 140.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.8N 140.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 15.9N 141.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 142.6W 60 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 17.5N 144.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 29/1200Z 19.5N 147.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 30/1200Z 20.5N 150.5W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 25-Sep-2005 14:55:19 UTC