ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005 MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THE CENTER OF KENNETH REMAINS NEAR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/3. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY 36 HOURS... A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE... WHICH WILL ACT TO NUDGE KENNETH SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS... THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS A RIDGE TO NORTH OF KENNETH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF THE STEERING PATTERNS... THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION... INCLUDING SMALL LOOPS... WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 2-5 KT IN 24-48 HOURS... SO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE KENNETH WILL STILL BE OVER 27C SSTS. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM AT TIMES. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.0N 138.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 16.1N 138.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 16.0N 139.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 15.7N 140.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 15.7N 141.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 16.2N 142.3W 45 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 17.3N 143.3W 40 KT 120HR VT 29/1200Z 18.5N 145.0W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 24-Sep-2005 15:10:21 UTC