ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES SHOW PULSES OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FLARE NEAR THE CENTER OF KENNETH. THE CONVECTIVE FLARE-UPS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...CONSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF WEAKENING. LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM AFWA AND SAB ARE 3.0...45 KTS...WHILE TAFB ESTIMATES ARE 3.5...55 KTS. RECENT NOAA POES OVERPASSES OF KENNETH YIELDED CSU-CIRA AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 50 KTS...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECASTS INDICATE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF KENNETH OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. KENNETH WILL REMAIN IN A REGION OF 27 DEGREE CELSIUS SST. LATE IN THE PERIOD...SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WILL WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS KENNETH AT 50 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/4. KENNETH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A RIDGE IN A REGIME OF WEAK STEERING FLOW. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT BETWEEN TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE SYSTEM EITHER MEANDERS NEAR THE VICINITY OF 140W FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE MOVING DUE NORTH OR IT SLOWLY MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST AND FINALLY TURNS NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS MODELS...THE UKMET...AND NOGAPS. IN THE LATER PERIOD...THE FORECAST TRACK HINTS TOWARD A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. FORECASTER SISKO/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 15.9N 138.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 16.0N 138.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 16.0N 139.4W 50 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 16.0N 139.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 16.0N 140.3W 50 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 16.1N 141.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 16.5N 142.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 17.5N 143.0W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 24-Sep-2005 03:10:22 UTC