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Hurricane KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005

VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES SHOW PULSES OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO
FLARE NEAR THE CENTER OF KENNETH. THE CONVECTIVE FLARE-UPS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...CONSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM SHOWS
LITTLE SIGN OF WEAKENING. LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM AFWA AND SAB
ARE 3.0...45 KTS...WHILE TAFB ESTIMATES ARE 3.5...55 KTS. RECENT
NOAA POES OVERPASSES OF KENNETH YIELDED CSU-CIRA AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 50 KTS...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KTS
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECASTS INDICATE VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF KENNETH OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. KENNETH WILL REMAIN IN A REGION OF 27 DEGREE CELSIUS SST.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
WILL WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
KEEPS KENNETH AT 50 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
THEN WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SHEAR INCREASES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/4. KENNETH IS LOCATED SOUTH
OF A RIDGE IN A REGIME OF WEAK STEERING FLOW. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SPLIT BETWEEN TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE SYSTEM EITHER MEANDERS
NEAR THE VICINITY OF 140W FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE MOVING DUE NORTH OR
IT SLOWLY MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST AND FINALLY TURNS NORTHWESTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS MODELS...THE UKMET...AND
NOGAPS. IN THE LATER PERIOD...THE FORECAST TRACK HINTS TOWARD A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.

FORECASTER SISKO/FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 15.9N 138.2W    50 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 138.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 16.0N 139.4W    50 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 16.0N 139.9W    50 KT
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 16.0N 140.3W    50 KT
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 16.1N 141.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 16.5N 142.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     29/0000Z 17.5N 143.0W    40 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN



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Page last modified: Saturday, 24-Sep-2005 03:10:22 UTC