ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY HAS SHOWN PULSATING MARGINAL DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. USING ROUGHLY THE MEAN OF DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR IS ONLY FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND SINCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST MAINTAINS THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/4 KT. CURRENTLY A WEAK RIDGE EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF KENNETH TO ERODE AS A DEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NORTH WITHIN 48 HOURS...KEEPING STEERING CURRENTS WEAK. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN ANTICYLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH COULD INDUCE A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A MORE NORTHWEST MOTION IS ANTICIPATED IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT BUILDING OF AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF KENNETH. FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 15.9N 137.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 138.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 16.1N 138.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 16.1N 139.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 16.0N 140.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 16.0N 140.6W 50 KT 96HR VT 27/1800Z 16.5N 141.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 28/1800Z 17.0N 142.5W 45 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 23-Sep-2005 20:55:21 UTC