ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005 MICROWAVE DATA SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS DETERMINED THAT THE CENTER LOCATION WAS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. A SSMI OVERPASS FROM 0522 UTC REVEALED A SOMEWHAT SHEARED SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/3 KT. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN RATHER WEAK AND THEY MAY ACTUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER. A WEAK EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT IS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST WELL WEST OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. BECAUSE OF THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGHLY DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL/GFS MOVING KENNETH SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE UKMET APPEARS AN OUTLINER IN TRACKING THE STORM QUICKLY TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINS A FORWARD SPEED OF 3-4 KT AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST TRACK ALSO SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION IN THE LONGER RANGER AS NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS MAY STEER KENNETH IN THAT DIRECTION. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND WILL MAINTAIN KENNETH AS A 55 KT TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR COULD LESSEN IN 24-36 HOURS WHICH COULD ALLOW KENNETH TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 16.0N 136.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 16.2N 136.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 16.2N 137.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 16.3N 138.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 16.3N 138.9W 55 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 16.0N 140.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 15.8N 141.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 28/0600Z 15.6N 143.0W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 23-Sep-2005 09:10:22 UTC