Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005
 
MICROWAVE DATA SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS DETERMINED THAT THE
CENTER LOCATION WAS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED.  A SSMI OVERPASS FROM 0522 UTC REVEALED A SOMEWHAT
SHEARED SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SW
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
FROM ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/3 KT. STEERING CURRENTS
REMAIN RATHER WEAK AND THEY MAY ACTUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER. A WEAK
EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT IS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST WELL WEST OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. BECAUSE OF THE WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGHLY DIVERGENT
WITH THE GFDL/GFS MOVING KENNETH SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD.  THE UKMET
APPEARS AN OUTLINER IN TRACKING THE STORM QUICKLY TO THE WEST. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINS A FORWARD SPEED OF 3-4 KT AND IS
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST TRACK ALSO
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION IN THE LONGER RANGER AS
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS MAY STEER KENNETH IN THAT
DIRECTION.
 
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SLOW DECREASE IN
INTENSITY OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND WILL MAINTAIN KENNETH AS A 55 KT
TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS INDICATES
THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR COULD LESSEN IN 24-36 HOURS WHICH COULD
ALLOW KENNETH TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. 
 
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 16.0N 136.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 16.2N 136.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 16.2N 137.4W    55 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.3N 138.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 16.3N 138.9W    55 KT
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 16.0N 140.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 15.8N 141.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     28/0600Z 15.6N 143.0W    50 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 23-Sep-2005 09:10:22 UTC