ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2005 VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT CONVECTION INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH. CURRENTLY...KENNETH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND REMAINS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING LEVEL FLOW. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE CONSENSUS 3.5 OR 55 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL SHOWS A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS KENNETH A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECASTS. THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS AN OUTLIER AS IT STRENGTHENS KENNETH TO A HURRICANE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN WEAKENS IT BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL/GFS MOVING KENNETH TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE OTHER MODELS TRACK IT WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK CALLS FOR CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...NOGAPS...UKMET AND CONU. KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. FORECASTER SISKO/KRAUTKRAMER/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 15.5N 136.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 15.6N 136.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 15.8N 137.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 15.9N 138.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 16.0N 139.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 16.0N 140.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 16.1N 142.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 28/0000Z 16.5N 144.0W 40 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 23-Sep-2005 03:10:22 UTC