Hurricane KENNETH

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TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2005

VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT CONVECTION INCREASING NEAR THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH. CURRENTLY...KENNETH IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND REMAINS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING
LEVEL FLOW. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE CONSENSUS
3.5 OR 55 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL SHOWS A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS KENNETH A
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECASTS. THE GFDL
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS AN OUTLIER AS IT STRENGTHENS KENNETH TO
A HURRICANE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN WEAKENS
IT BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT
WITH THE GFDL/GFS MOVING KENNETH TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE OTHER
MODELS TRACK IT WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK CALLS FOR CONTINUED
WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH FOLLOWS THE
MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...NOGAPS...UKMET AND CONU. KENNETH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THE SYSTEM WESTWARD.
 
FORECASTER SISKO/KRAUTKRAMER/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 15.5N 136.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 15.6N 136.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 15.8N 137.6W    50 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 15.9N 138.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.0N 139.2W    45 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 16.0N 140.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 16.1N 142.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     28/0000Z 16.5N 144.0W    40 KT
 
 
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