ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS KENNETH IS A WELL-DEVELOPED TROPICAL STORM WITH AN ORGANIZED OUTFLOW PATTERN. A 1559Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMED THE CIRCULATION CENTER FOUND EARLIER AND ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTED WAS NEEDED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KT IN ACCORD WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAB AND SAB. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH IS CURRENTLY IMPINGING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE. DESPITE THE SHEAR...THE WATERS REMAIN ABOVE 26 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND THE STORM CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS OWN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...CALLS FOR KENNETH TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SLOW WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/7. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL/GFS KEEPING A MEANDERING CYCLONE CLOSE TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION WITH AN EVENTUAL INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF MAX. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS CONTINUE KENNETH ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION BEING STEERED BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...TAKES KENNETH SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH FIVE DAYS BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS/UKMET SOLUTION. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 15.8N 136.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 16.0N 136.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 16.1N 137.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 16.2N 138.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 16.3N 139.1W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 16.4N 140.2W 45 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 16.5N 141.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 27/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Sep-2005 20:40:22 UTC