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Hurricane KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2005
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS KENNETH IS A WELL-DEVELOPED
TROPICAL STORM WITH AN ORGANIZED OUTFLOW PATTERN. A 1559Z SSMI
MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMED THE CIRCULATION CENTER FOUND EARLIER AND
ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTED WAS NEEDED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KT
IN ACCORD WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAB AND
SAB. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH IS CURRENTLY IMPINGING SOME NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE. DESPITE THE SHEAR...THE WATERS REMAIN ABOVE
26 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND THE STORM CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS OWN. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL
AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...CALLS FOR KENNETH TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SLOW WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/7. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL/GFS KEEPING A MEANDERING CYCLONE CLOSE TO
ITS CURRENT LOCATION WITH AN EVENTUAL INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS
OF MAX. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS CONTINUE KENNETH ON A
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION BEING STEERED BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...TAKES KENNETH SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH FIVE DAYS
BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS/UKMET SOLUTION.

 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 15.8N 136.3W    55 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 16.0N 136.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 16.1N 137.6W    50 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 16.2N 138.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 16.3N 139.1W    45 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 16.4N 140.2W    45 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 16.5N 141.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W    40 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Sep-2005 20:40:22 UTC