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Hurricane KENNETH (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...
WITH THE GFS SHOWING NO FURTHER WESTWARD MOTION AND THEN A
NORTHEASTWARD PATH AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CIRCULATION OF MAX.
THE NOGAPS AND UKMET KEEP KENNETH MOVING WESTWARD UNDERNEATH A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  WITH MAX LOSING DEEP CONVECTION AND FORECAST TO
WEAKEN QUICKLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LEANS TOWARD THE
UKMET/NOGAPS SCENARIO...ALBEIT WITH A SLOWER WESTWARD PROGRESSION.
 
MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NORTH OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH ALTHOUGH LIMITED IS STILL SHOWING SOME BANDING
FEATURES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON THE EARLIER
QUIKSCAT 50 KT VECTOR AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB.  THE SHIPS MODEL IS DIAGNOSING A FAIR AMOUNT OF NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR FROM THE GFS FIELDS...ALTHOUGH ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS
EVIDENT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE PRIMARY NEGATIVE
INTENSIFICATION FACTOR IS THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  A SLOW
DECAY IS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH WAS
BASED ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 14.9N 133.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 15.3N 134.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 15.6N 135.6W    40 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.8N 136.1W    35 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N 137.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N 138.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 16.0N 139.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     26/1800Z 16.0N 140.0W    35 KT
 
 
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