Hurricane KENNETH

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TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005
 
A 1943Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
BECOME DISPLACED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. EARLIER SSM/I IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT THE SHEARED
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY. UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT
DEPICTS 20 TO 30 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 KT TO 65 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AS KENNETH CONTINUES TO MOVE
WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS AGREES WITH THE SHIPS
AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/3. THE INTERMITTENT SOUTHWESTWARD
DRIFTS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING OVER THE
PAST 36 HOURS APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY THE MID- LEVEL PERIPHERAL
RIDGE BETWEEN JOVA AND KENNETH. THE GFS...NOGAPS...UKMET...FSU SUPER
ENSEMBLE AND THE GFDN SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LAYER HIGH TO THE
NORTH OF KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM. KENNETH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 72 HOURS...THEN WESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL TRADE FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...A BIT SLOWER...AND FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 13.5N 131.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 13.7N 131.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 14.3N 132.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 14.9N 132.9W    40 KT
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 15.3N 133.4W    35 KT
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 16.7N 135.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     26/0000Z 19.5N 141.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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