ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005 A CURVED BAND HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTER OF KENNETH DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE CYCLONE ALMOST DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 65 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THE CLASSIFICATIONS AND SATELLITE APPEARANCE... KENNETH HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS THE STORM ON A SLOWER TREND THAN THE SHIPS MODEL. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/2. THE SOUTHWEST DRIFT SEEN EARLIER TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED...AND KENNETH HAS NOW RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO STEER KENNETH TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 13.1N 131.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 13.3N 132.2W 50 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 13.8N 132.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 14.5N 133.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 15.0N 134.2W 35 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 16.0N 135.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 138.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 25/1800Z 18.5N 142.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Sep-2005 21:10:20 UTC