ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005 DESPITE THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAD ERODED THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF KENNETH OVERNIGHT...LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE CIRCULATION. DATA T-NUMBERS FROM DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE ONLY T3.5...OR 55 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. SINCE THE CONVECTION IS STILL TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN LOWERED TO A CONSERVATIVE 65 KT AND KENNETH REMAINS A MINIMAL HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF PERSISTANT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/2. DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS THE CENTER HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER...A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. HOWEVER...THE TRACK FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RE-ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST. FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 13.2N 131.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 13.3N 131.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 13.8N 132.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 14.5N 133.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 15.2N 134.2W 40 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 16.3N 135.4W 35 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 17.5N 137.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 25/1200Z 18.5N 140.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Sep-2005 15:10:20 UTC