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Hurricane KENNETH (Text)


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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005
 
DESPITE THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAD ERODED THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF KENNETH OVERNIGHT...LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. DATA T-NUMBERS FROM DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE ONLY
T3.5...OR 55 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. SINCE THE CONVECTION IS
STILL TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
ONLY BEEN LOWERED TO A CONSERVATIVE 65 KT AND KENNETH REMAINS A
MINIMAL HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF PERSISTANT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
AND COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
REASONING AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/2. DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS THE
CENTER HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD
FROM THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER...A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION
SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS
MODEL. HOWEVER...THE TRACK FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RE-ADJUSTED
INITIAL POSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST.
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 13.2N 131.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 13.3N 131.8W    60 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 13.8N 132.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 14.5N 133.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 15.2N 134.2W    40 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 16.3N 135.4W    35 KT
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 17.5N 137.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     25/1200Z 18.5N 140.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Sep-2005 15:10:20 UTC