Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005
 
DESPITE THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAD ERODED THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF KENNETH OVERNIGHT...LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. DATA T-NUMBERS FROM DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE ONLY
T3.5...OR 55 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. SINCE THE CONVECTION IS
STILL TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
ONLY BEEN LOWERED TO A CONSERVATIVE 65 KT AND KENNETH REMAINS A
MINIMAL HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF PERSISTANT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
AND COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
REASONING AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/2. DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS THE
CENTER HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD
FROM THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER...A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION
SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS
MODEL. HOWEVER...THE TRACK FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RE-ADJUSTED
INITIAL POSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST.
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 13.2N 131.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 13.3N 131.8W    60 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 13.8N 132.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 14.5N 133.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 15.2N 134.2W    40 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 16.3N 135.4W    35 KT
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 17.5N 137.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     25/1200Z 18.5N 140.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Sep-2005 15:10:20 UTC