Hurricane KENNETH

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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005
 
NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS PERSISTED THROUGHOUT DAY AND ALL OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION OF KENNETH
HAS WEAKENED.  DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH DATA
T-NUMBERS OF 5.0...90 KT...FROM TAFB AND 4.0...65 KT...FROM SAB.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO A GENEROUS 90 KT. SINCE SSTS
REMAIN ABOVE 27 DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE AREA...SOME BURSTS OF
CONVECTION MAY STILL REDEVELOP. THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO RELAX
RESULTING IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLING FOR CONTINUED 
WEAKENING. KENNETH SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 36 HOURS IF
NOT SOONER.

KENNETH HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR THE LAST NINE HOURS. KENNETH IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A COL REGION...AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING
FLOW...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE ALLOWING KENNETH TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 13.4N 130.5W    90 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 13.5N 130.7W    80 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 13.8N 131.4W    70 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 14.2N 132.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 14.9N 132.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 16.5N 134.3W    50 KT
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 18.0N 136.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N 138.0W    40 KT
 
 
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