ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER RAGGED 18 NM EYE...WITH CONSIDERABLE WARMING OF THE EYE WALL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 115 KT. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON A DECLINE AS THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECASTS INDICATE. ALTHOUGH KENNETH MAY BE WEAKENING...THE TREND SHOULD BE GRADUAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/6. KENNETH IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERAL FLOW OF A MID- LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WHICH APPEARS TO BE SOME INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM MAX TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND IS A BLEND OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS AND THE GFDN. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 14.1N 130.4W 115 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 14.1N 131.1W 110 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 14.3N 132.0W 100 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 14.8N 133.0W 90 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 15.3N 134.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 16.0N 135.2W 65 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 24/0000Z 17.0N 138.5W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 19-Sep-2005 20:55:21 UTC