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Hurricane KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005

ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER RAGGED 18 NM EYE...WITH
CONSIDERABLE WARMING OF THE EYE WALL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 115 KT. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
ON A DECLINE AS THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
INTENSITY FORECASTS INDICATE. ALTHOUGH KENNETH MAY BE
WEAKENING...THE TREND SHOULD BE GRADUAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/6. KENNETH IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERAL FLOW OF A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND THE
GFDL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WHICH
APPEARS TO BE SOME INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM MAX TO THE EAST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND IS A BLEND OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS AND THE
GFDN.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 14.1N 130.4W   115 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 14.1N 131.1W   110 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 14.3N 132.0W   100 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 14.8N 133.0W    90 KT
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 15.3N 134.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 16.0N 135.2W    65 KT
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     24/0000Z 17.0N 138.5W    50 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 19-Sep-2005 20:55:21 UTC