Hurricane KENNETH
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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005
ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER RAGGED 18 NM EYE...WITH
CONSIDERABLE WARMING OF THE EYE WALL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 115 KT. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
ON A DECLINE AS THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
INTENSITY FORECASTS INDICATE. ALTHOUGH KENNETH MAY BE
WEAKENING...THE TREND SHOULD BE GRADUAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/6. KENNETH IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERAL FLOW OF A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND THE
GFDL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WHICH
APPEARS TO BE SOME INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM MAX TO THE EAST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND IS A BLEND OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS AND THE
GFDN.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 14.1N 130.4W 115 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 14.1N 131.1W 110 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 14.3N 132.0W 100 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 14.8N 133.0W 90 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 15.3N 134.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 16.0N 135.2W 65 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 17.0N 138.5W 50 KT
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