ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 1152Z SSMI OVERPASS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 25NM CLEAR SYMMETRIC EYE. THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE CENTER OF KENNETH HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE CYCLONE MOST LIKELY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 08Z EARLY THIS MORNING. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 5.5...102KT...FROM TAFB...AND 5.0...90KT... FROM SAB. LATEST AODT ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 5.6 AND 5.8 WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT. THE SHIPS MAINTAINS KENNETH OVER A 100KT HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE WEAKEN KENNETH TO 95KT AND 80KT RESPECTIVELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SLOWLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE MAINTAINING HURRICANE STATUS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND INTO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS NEAR 135W THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONU/GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 13.7N 126.6W 105 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 14.1N 127.5W 100 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 14.5N 128.4W 95 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 14.9N 129.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 15.3N 130.2W 75 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 17.0N 133.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 17-Sep-2005 15:10:20 UTC