ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES AS WELL AS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WITHIN 60NM OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB YIELD T4.5 OR 77 KT. BASED ON AN IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE FROM SIX HOURS AGO AND DATA-T NUMBERS AT 4.5...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 75 KT. INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIFFERS BETWEEN THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE WITH MAXIMUM STRENGTHENING FORECAST AT 76 KT...81 KT...AND 88 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THE NORTHERLY SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DISTURBING THE CURRENT OVERALL STRUCTURE OF KENNETH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES KENNETH TO 85 KT IN 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS KENNETH ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AND TRACK THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST TAKES KENNETH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE GUNS AND GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 13.0N 123.3W 75 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 13.3N 124.4W 80 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 13.8N 125.6W 85 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 14.2N 126.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 14.6N 127.7W 80 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 15.0N 129.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 15.3N 131.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 15.5N 133.0W 60 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 16-Sep-2005 15:10:19 UTC