Hurricane KENNETH

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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES AS
WELL AS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WITHIN 60NM OF THE CENTER. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB YIELD T4.5 OR 77 KT.  BASED
ON AN IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE FROM SIX HOURS AGO AND DATA-T
NUMBERS AT 4.5...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 75 KT.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIFFERS BETWEEN THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPER
ENSEMBLE WITH MAXIMUM STRENGTHENING FORECAST AT 76 KT...81 KT...AND
88 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THE NORTHERLY SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
DISTURBING THE CURRENT OVERALL STRUCTURE OF KENNETH...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES KENNETH TO 85 KT IN 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL WEAKENING AS KENNETH ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS.    

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED
BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AND TRACK THE SYSTEM ON
A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST TAKES KENNETH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE GUNS AND GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS. 

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 13.0N 123.3W    75 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 13.3N 124.4W    80 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 13.8N 125.6W    85 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 14.2N 126.7W    80 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 14.6N 127.7W    80 KT
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 15.0N 129.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 15.3N 131.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     21/1200Z 15.5N 133.0W    60 KT
 
 
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