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Hurricane KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   7...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005

CORRECTED SECOND PARAGRAPH
 
KENNETH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND WELL DEFINED BANDS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND T4.0 FROM AFWA. ON
THE OTHER HAND...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0210Z SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS
MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE OF THE ABOVE DATA...AND IS
SET AT 70 KT. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME FURTHER
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ABOUT 400 NM EAST OF THE CYCLONE MAY BE PRODUCING SOME NORTHERLY
SHEAR...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DISRUPTING KENNETH ENOUGH
TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH
THE INTENSIFICATION TREND CONTINUING THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
SOME WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL TAKE KENNETH TO 85 KT AT 24-36 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING TO 60 KT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9. KENNETH IS SOUTH OF A MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM MEXICO...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE NEAR 125W. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE CYCLONE AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SLOWS DOWN THE
SYSTEM...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK BUT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE... 
AND IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THEN CATCHES UP WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 96
AND 120 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 13.0N 122.6W    70 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 13.2N 123.7W    75 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 13.5N 125.0W    85 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 13.9N 126.1W    85 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 14.4N 127.2W    80 KT
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 15.0N 129.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 15.5N 130.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     21/0600Z 16.0N 132.5W    60 KT
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 16-Sep-2005 10:10:18 UTC