ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION IS PULSING UP AND DOWN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH IS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE. A TRMM PASS AT 2203Z CONFIRMS THIS SHEARED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FROM TAFB/SAB...THE TRMM PASS SHOWED NO WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION HIGHER THAN 25 KT. THERE ARE ALSO NO TRUE CURVED BAND FEATURES WITH A BLOB-LIKE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT AND IF THE CONVECTION PERSISTS...THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME THE 11TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SEEM FAVORABLE FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE TRMM PASS ALSO HELPED THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...NOW ABOUT 310/9. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER...PERHAPS RESPONDING TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 125W. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT... OR NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL. MODELS ALSO INSIST ON A SLOWER MOTION THAN RECENTLY SEEN AND THE FORECAST SPEED IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SOME ADJUSTMENT IN TRACK WILL PROBABLY STILL BE NEEDED AS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE BETTER ASSIMILATES THE DEPRESSION'S POSITION AND INTENSITY. FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 13.0N 119.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 13.5N 120.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 14.0N 121.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 14.5N 123.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 15.0N 124.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 127.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 130.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 16.5N 133.5W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 15-Sep-2005 02:55:20 UTC