ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 500 N MI EAST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH TOPS TO -75C. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/9. NONE OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF...ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THIS SYSTEM EXISTS. THE ECMWF CALLS FOR A ERRATIC WESTWARD MOTION SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WESTWARD WITH TIME. THIS TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NHC91. SOME ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD OCCUR ONCE THE INITIAL MOTION IS BETTER KNOWN. VERTICAL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL IS THE ONLY MODEL TO FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE ON THE SHIPS MODEL. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 12.5N 118.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 13.0N 119.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 13.4N 121.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 13.7N 123.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 125.2W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 14.5N 128.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 131.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 14.5N 134.5W 30 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 14-Sep-2005 20:40:19 UTC