ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT JOVA REMAINS A COMPACT STORM...WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HINTS OF AN EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SHOW AN EYE AND EYEWALL UNDERNEATH THE CDO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB...AND 65 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. BASED ON THIS AND THE ORGANIZATION SEEN IN THE AMSU IMAGERY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JOVA SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THE TRACK...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AFTER 72 HR...MOST NOTABLY BETWEEN THE FASTER NOGAPS AND THE NOW EVEN SLOWER GFS GFDL. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. JOVA REMAINS OVER 28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLLOW CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION FOR AT LEAST 24-36 HR...AND IT IS POSSIBLE JOVA COULD GET STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AFTER 36-48 HR...THE SSTS GRADUALLY BEGIN COOLING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WEAKER SHIPS AND THE STRONGER GFDL AND GFDN FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...THEN FOLLOWS SHIPS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 12.4N 136.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 12.2N 137.8W 80 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 12.3N 139.6W 85 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 12.7N 141.0W 85 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 13.2N 142.2W 80 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 14.5N 144.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 15.5N 146.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 17.0N 148.5W 60 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 16-Sep-2005 20:40:21 UTC