ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005 JOVA HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 24 HR...WITH AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OUTER BAND OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WHICH IS LIKELY A DIURNAL DECREASE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. JOVA IS MOVING TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY...260/13. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD FORCE A CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION FOR 36-48 HR. AFTER THAT...A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE...CAUSING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SPEED AFTER THAT TIME. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS FASTER. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU. JOVA IS OVER 28C WATER AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT. THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY INTENSIFY FOR 48-72 HR. THE GFDN BRING THE STORM TO 121 KT IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR 90 KT IN 48 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THIS...CALLING FOR 80 KT IN 72 HR...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS FORECAST. AFTER 72 HR...JOVA SHOULD ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR AND SHOULD WEAKEN. THE NOGAPS AND GFS SUGGEST THE STORM MAY ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR THAN INDICATED IN THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IF THAT HAPPENS JOVA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 13.0N 132.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 12.8N 133.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 12.6N 135.8W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 12.5N 137.7W 70 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 12.7N 139.4W 75 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 13.5N 142.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 15.5N 146.0W 60 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 15-Sep-2005 20:55:19 UTC