ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005 LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN JOVA'S STRUCTURE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM T3.0...45 KT...FROM TAFB AND T2.5...35 KT...FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT...WHICH AGREES WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 0230Z WHICH SHOWED A FEW 40 KT WIND VECTORS NEAR THE CENTER. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE GFDL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS JOVA UP TO 93 KT IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...WHILE THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TAKE THE CYCLONE TO NEAR 65 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SHIPS IN PEAKING JOVA AT 65 KT AT 48 AND 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER WITH ALL GUIDANCE INDICATING SLOW WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL WEAKEN JOVA TO 50 KT BY 120 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 270/10. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE SAME GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH INDICATES DEEP-LAYER RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HRS...TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. THE GFS MODEL REMAINS AS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER...BUT IS CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN IS FOR A SLOWER MOTION IN THE 72-120 HOUR TIME FRAME...AS JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IS A BIT SLOWER IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 13.7N 129.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 13.7N 130.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 13.6N 133.1W 50 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 13.6N 135.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 13.6N 137.7W 65 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 14.0N 141.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 15.0N 144.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 16.5N 146.5W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 15-Sep-2005 08:55:20 UTC