ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005 THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES NOTED. IN ADDITION DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 35 KT FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JOVA WITH THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEEP- LAYER RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 60-72 HRS...TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN A SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND INDICATES A PROLONGED WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER 72 HR...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL... AND THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS RESPOND TO THIS FEATURE BY TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS NOW SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR AND IS CLOSER TO THE OTHER MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH 72 HR...THEN TURNS THE SYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE GFDL IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS JOVA UP TO 80-85 KT...THEN KEEPS THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE DESPITE A FORECAST TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS. THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD SHIPS AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE IN 72 HR BEFORE THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVER COOLER WATERS BRINGS ABOUT SOME WEAKENING. FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 13.7N 128.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 13.7N 129.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 13.6N 132.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 13.6N 134.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 137.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 14.0N 141.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 15.0N 144.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 16.5N 147.0W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 15-Sep-2005 02:55:20 UTC