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Tropical Storm JOVA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005
 
THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED 
WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE 
CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES NOTED. IN ADDITION  
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 35 KT FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE
AGENCIES. THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JOVA
WITH THIS ADVISORY. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEEP-
LAYER RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 60-72
HRS...TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. THE GFS IS
ONCE AGAIN A SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND INDICATES A PROLONGED WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER 72 HR...THE GLOBAL 
MODELS SHOW AN MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL...
AND THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS RESPOND TO THIS FEATURE BY TURNING THE
SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS NOW SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
MOTION AFTER 72 HR AND IS CLOSER TO THE OTHER MODELS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH 72 HR...THEN TURNS THE
SYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE...ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
 
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE GFDL IS RATHER
AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS JOVA UP TO 80-85 KT...THEN KEEPS THE SYSTEM A
HURRICANE DESPITE A FORECAST TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS. THUS THE
INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD SHIPS AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO A
MINIMAL HURRICANE IN 72 HR BEFORE THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVER
COOLER WATERS BRINGS ABOUT SOME WEAKENING.    
 
FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 13.7N 128.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 13.7N 129.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 13.6N 132.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 13.6N 134.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 13.7N 137.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 14.0N 141.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 15.0N 144.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 16.5N 147.0W    55 KT
  
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 15-Sep-2005 02:55:20 UTC