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Tropical Depression TEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2005

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE-LOOKING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM THE THREE AGENCIES SUPPORT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...HOWEVER BOTH TAFB AND AFWA LOWERED THE T-NUMBER AT
12Z.  DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED...SO THE SYSTEM IS NOT
UPGRADED AT THIS TIME.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN
10 KT THROUGH 96 HOURS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A STEADY INCREASE IN
STRENGTH.  HOWEVER THE BUOYANCY TERM IN THE SHIPS OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT A STABLE AIR MASS MAY IMPEDE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS
AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS JUST SOUTH OF WEST...260/11.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE...WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 20-25N LATITUDE...SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  BY DAYS 4-5...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF 140W.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK MAINTAINS A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 3...
WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG WITH SOME SLOWING OF
THE FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER.  THIS IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...AND ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFDL/UKMET/
NOGAPS/GFS CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 13.9N 126.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 13.8N 127.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 13.6N 130.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 13.4N 133.2W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 13.3N 135.7W    50 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 13.5N 140.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 14.5N 144.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N 147.5W    55 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 14-Sep-2005 14:40:19 UTC