ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005 A TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AT 2259Z INDICATED RAINBANDS ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. THE APPEARANCE ON MICROWAVE MIGHT BE A BIT DECEIVING GIVEN THE MORE DISHEVELED LOOK OF THE DEPRESSION ON SATELLITE WITH FADING CONVECTION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE NOT YET AT TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH FROM ALL AGENCIES AND WE WOULD PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL RECEIVING CONSENSUS TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY ESTIMATES BEFORE UPGRADING THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER IS IN THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION AND IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFDL... WHICH TURNS TEN-E INTO A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS... AND THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH NEVER GETS ABOVE 58 KT. THE INITIAL SPEED HAS PICKED UP A LITTLE...NOW ABOUT 265/12. A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...CONTINUES TO FORCE A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD MOVEMENT. TRACK GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE EARLIER WITH THE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AS IT MOVES THE MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE WESTWARD MORE IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. OTHER MODELS ARE ALSO FASTER SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND...CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE NOGAPS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH A MOTION MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 96 HOURS OR SO. THE POSSIBILITY OF A BINARY INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 525 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TEN-E APPEARS TO BE LESSENING TONIGHT. THIS IS BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD FASTER THAN THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING...FURTHER INCREASING THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 14.2N 124.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 14.1N 125.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 14.0N 127.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 14.0N 130.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 14.0N 132.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 14.0N 137.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 14.0N 141.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 14.5N 145.0W 60 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 14-Sep-2005 02:40:16 UTC