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Tropical Depression TEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005
 
A TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AT 2259Z INDICATED RAINBANDS ARE BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. THE
APPEARANCE ON MICROWAVE MIGHT BE A BIT DECEIVING GIVEN THE MORE
DISHEVELED LOOK OF THE DEPRESSION ON SATELLITE WITH FADING
CONVECTION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE NOT YET AT
TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH FROM ALL AGENCIES AND WE WOULD PREFER TO
WAIT UNTIL RECEIVING CONSENSUS TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BEFORE UPGRADING THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER IS
IN THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION AND IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM SOON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFDL...
WHICH TURNS TEN-E INTO A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS... AND THE SHIPS
MODEL WHICH NEVER GETS ABOVE 58 KT. 

THE INITIAL SPEED HAS PICKED UP A LITTLE...NOW ABOUT 265/12. A
STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE...CONTINUES TO FORCE A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD MOVEMENT.
TRACK GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE EARLIER WITH THE GFS
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AS IT MOVES THE MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE WESTWARD
MORE IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. OTHER MODELS ARE ALSO FASTER SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND...CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE NOGAPS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH A MOTION MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 96 HOURS OR SO. 
 
THE POSSIBILITY OF A BINARY INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ABOUT 525 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TEN-E APPEARS TO BE
LESSENING TONIGHT.  THIS IS BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
WESTWARD FASTER THAN THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING...FURTHER INCREASING
THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.  
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 14.2N 124.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 14.1N 125.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 14.0N 127.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 14.0N 130.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 14.0N 132.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 14.0N 137.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 14.0N 141.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     19/0000Z 14.5N 145.0W    60 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 14-Sep-2005 02:40:16 UTC