ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005 A SMALL CDO HAS FORMED AND THERE IS A DEVELOPING BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.0 FROM AFWA AND TAFB AND 2.5 FROM SAB. THUS...THE SYSTEM IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS INCREASING STABILITY ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK. THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...CONTINUES TO FORCE A WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD MOVEMENT. CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/10 ALTHOUGH THE SHORT-TERM FORWARD SPEED IS SOMEWHAT FASTER. TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH A TENDENCY FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND SLOWING BY DAYS 4-5. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS AND SIMILAR THEREAFTER. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A NEW TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS JUST DEVELOPED A LITTLE OVER 500 N MI TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TEN-E...AND IT SHOWS SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. SINCE THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD FASTER THAN THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING...A SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 14.2N 122.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 14.1N 124.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 13.9N 125.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 13.9N 127.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 13.9N 130.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 134.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 14.0N 138.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 141.0W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 13-Sep-2005 20:40:19 UTC