ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005 THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE POORLY ORGANIZED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANALYSIS OF QUIKSCAT AND SSMI DATA FROM AROUND 0200 UTC SHOWED A BROAD AND POSSIBLY ELONGATED CENTER SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. EARLIER BANDING FEATURES NORTH OF THE CENTER HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...WITH ONLY A FEW CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH T2.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE PROVIDING A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE INITIAL POSITION WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER WARM WATER DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...TAKING THE SYSTEM TO 64 KT BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS DESPITE PERSISTENT NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMIC PREDICTORS. THE GFDL IS QUITE ERRATIC IN ITS INTENSITY FORECAST...BUT EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE TO 82 KT NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS MODEL IS ON THE OTHER EXTREME...DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM VERY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO 55 KT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION...BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 265/9 BASED ON A 24-HOUR MOTION. DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WHERE IT IS VERY CLOSE. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 14.2N 119.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 14.0N 121.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 13.8N 123.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 13.6N 125.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 13.5N 127.7W 45 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 13.5N 132.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 13.5N 136.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 18/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 13-Sep-2005 08:40:19 UTC